There is no shortage of ships, but the ports are getting more and more congested
Created on 10.19
Ships are not "lacking," but ports are getting more and more congested
On one hand, the capacity of the global container fleet keeps hitting new highs; on the other hand, shippers find it "harder to grab space than to grab cargo." At present, the focus of international shipping is shifting from "freight rate fluctuations" to a more thorny issue—ports are getting more and more congested.
About 3 million TEU of global capacity is trapped at terminals and anchorages, and schedule reliability has fallen to its lowest in nearly 4 years.
File photo of Yangshan Port automated terminal
3 million TEU of capacity, locked in ports
According to analysis by global schedule data agency Sea-Intelligence, about 8.5% of the global container fleet capacity is currently occupied due to port delays, equivalent to about 3 million TEU; C.H. Robinson's October report shows that port congestion has occupied about 12% of global container capacity, the highest in four years. Before the pandemic (2011–2019), this proportion averaged only about 2.2%. In other words, a large amount of capacity is stuck at ports and cannot be turned over—ships exist, but cannot be used.
Monthly trend of global liner schedule reliability
Schedule reliability falls below 50%, with Asia hit hardest
The most intuitive consequence of congestion is a significant disruption of shipping schedules. Sea-Intelligence data shows that the global liner schedule reliability fell from 62.6% in June to 56.4% in July, and further dropped to 49.9% in August, hitting a near four-year low; the average delay days for late vessels are also lengthening.
Among them, the pressure on Asian ports is particularly prominent: in August, the overall schedule reliability of Asian ports was about 32.3%, Chinese ports about 23.9%, with Shanghai Port as low as 12.2% and Ningbo Port 16.9%—on average, fewer than two out of every ten ships berth on time.
Comparison of Regional Port Schedule Reliability in August 2026
III. Why does congestion last longer and longer? Three factors combined
First, weather disruptions. Since August, multiple typhoons have affected ports in East China. Shanghai Port was once shut down for about 70 hours, with over 400,000 TEU of cargo backlogged, and ships waited at anchorage for up to more than 12 days.
Second, ships bunching up. Peak-season cargo volumes were released in a concentrated period, and a large number of ships arrived at ports at the same time, exceeding the terminals' maximum operating capacity. At one point, as many as 139 ships were waiting at anchorage to enter Yangshan Port.
Third, geopolitical detours. Under the Red Sea situation, many ships diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyage times and disrupting the original sailing schedule connections, with congestion spreading from Asia to Europe and transatlantic routes.
Port congestion has brought chain reactions: shipping companies are forced to blank sailings, omit ports, and roll containers, and shippers still face the risk of "schedule changes" after booking; yard occupancy rates remain high (Ningbo Zhoushan yard occupancy rate reached over 90%),
and the timeliness of container pickup and return has declined. As industry insiders say, for shippers, what they really need to worry about is no longer just waiting at anchorage, but the entire shipping rhythm being disrupted.
Port congestion is a stress test for the resilience of the global supply chain. It reminds us that with total capacity continuing to grow today, turnover efficiency is the truly scarce resource. The next competition in the shipping industry may not be about "who has more ships," but about "who is faster."
Total capacity is growing, but turnover efficiency is the truly scarce resource in shipping today.
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